944 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 181442
 TCDEP4
 HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 18 2006
 
 TRMM AND AQUA MICROWAVE PASSES FROM AROUND 1000 UTC SHOW THAT THE
 EYEWALL OF HECTOR HAS BECOME OPEN IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE
 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS ALSO BECOME DEGRADED WITH
 THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKING A LITTLE ASYMMETRIC.  T-NUMBERS FROM
 SAB/TAFB HAVE DROPPED A LITTLE AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
 85 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD. 
 THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE PASSING THE 26.5C ISOTHERM WHICH SHOULD
 CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING.  IN ADDITION VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
 FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH WOULD
 ALSO HELP WEAKEN THE HURRICANE.  SHIPS WEAKENS HECTOR RATHER
 QUICKLY IN THE SHORT-TERM COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO... WHICH MAY BE
 A BIT TOO FAST DUE TO DIAGNOSED SHEAR VALUES THAT APPEARS TO BE
 OVERESTIMATED.  ON THE OTHER HAND... GFDL HOLDS ONTO HECTOR AS A
 HURRICANE FOR 2 DAYS WHICH SEEMS WAY TOO HIGH.  THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE SHIPS...WHICH PROBABLY HAS THE
 RIGHT IDEA...AND AGREES WELL WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE... ABOUT 290/12. 
 THE HURRICANE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A MIDDLE-
 TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  HECTOR COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO
 THE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE ON TWO EXTREMES OF THE
 MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... WITH THE NOGAPS PLOWING HECTOR
 NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY...
 WHILE THE UKMET IS SEEMINGLY UNAFFECTED AND CONTINUES MOVING
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE BIT
 SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION
 OF THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.  
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/1500Z 16.1N 125.8W    85 KT
  12HR VT     19/0000Z 16.9N 127.4W    80 KT
  24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.8N 129.2W    70 KT
  36HR VT     20/0000Z 18.7N 130.8W    60 KT
  48HR VT     20/1200Z 19.6N 132.3W    45 KT
  72HR VT     21/1200Z 21.0N 134.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
  96HR VT     22/1200Z 22.0N 137.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     23/1200Z 22.5N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB