984 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 301438
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008
 800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008
  
 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0958Z TRMM OVERPASS DEPICT CRISTINA
 AS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED...WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE.  20 KT OF
 EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS DISPLACED WHAT IS REMAINING OF THE
 CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
 ADDITIONALLY...CLOUD TOPS OVER THIS PORTION OF THE SYSTEM HAVE
 WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  DVORAK SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DECREASING...AND THE INITIAL WINDS ARE
 LOWERED TO 30 KT.
  
 PERSISTENT SHEAR...A STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES SHOULD REDUCE CRISTINA TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE 24 HOUR
 PERIOD. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN 3 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER. 
 THIS IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS. 
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/10.  BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
 TRMM PASS AND A 0621Z AMSU-B IMAGE...CRISTINA APPEARS TO BE
 INCREASING A BIT IN FORWARD SPEED WHILE MAINTAINING A GENERAL
 WESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR CRISTINA TO
 CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW
 PRODUCED BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/1500Z 14.3N 131.2W    30 KT
  12HR VT     01/0000Z 14.2N 132.8W    30 KT
  24HR VT     01/1200Z 13.8N 134.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     02/0000Z 13.6N 136.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     02/1200Z 13.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     03/1200Z 13.5N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA