782 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 300229
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006
 800 PM PDT MON MAY 29 2006
  
 ALETTA IS STRUGGLING FOR SURVIVAL.  THE CLOUD PATTERN IS HIGHLY
 DISORGANIZED AND THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...DEEP CONVECTION
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE.  AN AMSR-E IMAGE FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO
 SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS POORLY DEFINED.  THE
 SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASED ON A
 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB...AS WELL AS THE
 CURRENTLY DISHEVELED APPEARANCE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ALETTA IS
 EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MASS...AND WESTERLY
 VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN INCREASING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.
 THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH THE CURRENT TREND...WOULD APPEAR TO
 MITIGATE AGAINST RE-STRENGTHENING.  NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
 FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ALETTA IS FORECAST TO
 WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE LATTER
 EVENT COULD OCCUR SOONER.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY WESTWARD...270/3.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A
 WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALETTA FOR THE NEXT
 SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD
 MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
 SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/0300Z 16.0N 102.3W    30 KT
  12HR VT     30/1200Z 15.9N 102.8W    30 KT
  24HR VT     31/0000Z 15.8N 103.7W    30 KT
  36HR VT     31/1200Z 15.7N 104.5W    30 KT
  48HR VT     01/0000Z 15.6N 105.6W    30 KT
  72HR VT     02/0000Z 15.5N 107.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     03/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     04/0000Z 15.5N 111.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$