024 
 WTPA41 PHFO 100851
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
 1100 PM HST SAT JAN 09 2016
  
 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TROPICAL STORM PALI HAS CHANGED
 LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE APPARENT LOW LEVEL
 CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ REMAINING NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF
 THE DEEP CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 CAME IN AT 2.5/35 KT FROM HFO...2.0/30 KT FROM SAB...AND 1.5/25 KT
 FROM JTWC. CIMSS ADT CURRENTLY SHOWS 2.5/35 KT...WHILE THE LATEST
 CIMSS SATCON CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE STANDS AT 40 KT. WE HAVE
 MAINTAINED PALI AS A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
 
 THE LLCC IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE
 TUCKED UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT ANALYSIS
 OF LOW CLOUD LINES VISIBLE IN THE HIGH-RESOLUTION HIMAWARI DATA
 ALONG WITH A FEW RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT PALI HAS
 MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE INITIAL
 MOTION ESTIMATE IS NEARLY STATIONARY. PALI REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
 LARGER EAST TO WEST ORIENTED LOW LATITUDE TROUGH THAT LIES BETWEEN A
 LARGE AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
 THE EQUATOR...AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF A DEEP RIDGE
 CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 18N. THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
 REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...DEPICTING A SLOW
 NORTHEAST TO EAST DRIFT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36
 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH BY 48 HOURS.
 THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE ACCELERATES THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE SOUTH
 SOUTHWEST...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
 TRACK...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS...AND IS IN BEST
 AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS. FOR DAYS 4 AND 5...
 THE NEW TRACK ENDS UP FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...SHOWING
 A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MOTION TOWARD THE EQUATOR.
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. AFTER A LONG PERIOD WITH
 ALMOST NO DEEP CONVECTION ANYWHERE NEAR THE LLCC ON FRIDAY
 NIGHT...PALI HAS MAINTAINED PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
 CENTER FOR ABOUT THE PAST 18 HOURS NOW. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION
 IS INDICATIVE OF CONTINUED EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH THE
 SHEAR MAGNITUDE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 KT BY SHIPS AND 10 KT BY THE UW-
 CIMSS ANALYSIS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR CONTINUING
 THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE SHEAR DIRECTION GRADUALLY
 VEERING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST THEN TO THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ARE CERTAINLY FAVORABLE SO
 CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR. INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A WIDE
 SPREAD...WITH THE GFDL/HWRF INTENSIFYING THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE
 BY 96 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS/LGEM WEAKEN PALI TO A DEPRESSION...AND
 THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW LITTLE CHANGE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
 MAINTAIN PALI AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN
 WEAKEN IT TO A DEPRESSION THEREAFTER AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO
 THE EQUATOR AND ENCOUNTERS PREDICTED SOUTHERLY SHEAR.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  10/0900Z  7.7N 174.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  10/1800Z  7.8N 174.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  11/0600Z  7.9N 174.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  11/1800Z  8.0N 173.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  12/0600Z  7.6N 173.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  13/0600Z  5.2N 174.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  14/0600Z  3.0N 175.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  15/0600Z  1.5N 176.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER JACOBSON