578 
 WTPA41 PHFO 231459
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 500 AM HST SUN AUG 23 2015
  
 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS KILO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED THIS 
 MORNING. THE CURRENT DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 1.5 
 FROM JTWC AND SAB...AND 2.5 FROM PHFO. THE LATEST ADVISORY INTENSITY 
 WILL REMAIN 30 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER OBSERVATIONS FROM A 53RD 
 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON AIRCRAFT LAST EVENING...AND A 
 COMPROMISE OF THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS.
  
 THE CENTER LOCATION IS VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO POOR APPEARANCE IN 
 SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE WERE ALSO NO RECENT DEFINITIVE MICROWAVE 
 IMAGES AVAILABLE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/13. KILO 
 CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
 EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND IN HAWAII. A MID-LEVEL 
 RIDGE...WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE TO NEAR 
 LONGITUDE 164W...IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL 
 MODELS. AS A RESULT...KILO WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO AN AREA OF WEAKER 
 STEERING WHICH WOULD CAUSE IT TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT TURNS 
 TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS WOULD BE 
 FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING 24 TO 36 
 HOURS...AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A 
 TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST IS ALSO FORECAST DURING DAYS 3-4... 
 DUE IN PART TO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS NORTH OF THE 
 HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE SHARPNESS OF THE RECURVATURE AT THE LONGER 
 TIME RANGE APPEARS TO BE A FUNCTION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH 
 ALOFT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO LEFT OF THE 
 PREVIOUS TRACK SINCE NEARLY ALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT 
 KILO MAY NOT TURN SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS TRACK IS CLOSE 
 TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...FOLLOWED BY A BLEND OF THE HWRF/GFDL MODEL 
 OUTPUT FOR THE PERIOD DURING DAYS 3-5.
  
 THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE 
 TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE LATEST ESTIMATES 
 OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE 8 KT FROM 285 DEGREES BASED 
 ON THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND 11 KT FROM 300 DEGREES BASED ON THE 
 SHIPS GUIDANCE. THIS GENERAL ENVIRONMENT IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO 
 CHANGE MUCH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. 
 THEREFORE...ASSUMING KILO CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...SLOW 
 INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST 
 FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CLOSELY. THIS IS MOST IN LINE WITH 
 SHIPS...SINCE SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS APPEAR TO PREDICT A MUCH 
 STRONGER SYSTEM BY DAYS 4-5. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO INCREASE THE 
 LONG TERM INTENSITY GIVEN THE POOR INITIAL CONDITIONS.
  
 AN AIRCRAFT FROM THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON IS 
 SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KILO LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF THE 
 SYSTEM STILL HAS A VIABLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTION HAS 
 RECENTLY BEEN PULSING NEAR AN APPARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. IT IS 
 POSSIBLE THAT KILO MAY HAVE BEEN SLOWING AND UNDERGOING 
 REORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SO THESE AIRCRAFT 
 OBSERVATIONS WILL BE USEFUL FOR DETERMINING THE LOCATION... 
 INTENSITY AND SIZE OF KILO.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  23/1500Z 15.2N 163.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  24/0000Z 15.5N 164.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  24/1200Z 16.1N 165.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  25/0000Z 17.0N 166.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  25/1200Z 17.9N 166.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  26/1200Z 18.9N 165.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  27/1200Z 19.7N 164.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  28/1200Z 20.6N 164.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON