202 
 WTPA41 PHFO 092050
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
 1100 AM HST SAT AUG 09 2008
 
 CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF
 KIKA...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY OVER THE 
 PAST SIX HOURS. THE 1800 UTC SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE 
 CHANGED LITTLE AS WELL...WITH FIXES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KT FROM 
 PHFO AND SAB AND 25 KT FROM JTWC. HAVE KEPT INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 
 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION OF 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT HAS BEEN FAIRLY STEADY 
 OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS ARE 
 TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK PRETTY MUCH GOES DOWN THE 
 MIDDLE OF THEM ALL. THIS IS DUE TO DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A 
 DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS POSITIONED FAR TO THE NORTH OF KIKA. 
 THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. 
 
 ACCORDING TO UW/CIMSS ANALYSES...THE SHEAR HAS WEAKENED OVER KIKA TO 
 LESS THAN 3 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 
 PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL 
 BE MOVING OVER THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS BEFORE ENTERING AN 
 AREA OF WARMER WATER AND HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. DUE TO THE 
 DECREASE IN SHEAR...SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. THIS IS IN 
 LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND 72 HOURS ALL BUT THE SHIPS MODEL 
 SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WITH SHIPS BRINGING KIKA UP TO AROUND 
 55 KT WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 
 BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY 
 SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF KIKA. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO 
 FOLLOW THIS SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND BEYOND 72 HOURS. 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/2100Z 10.3N 158.9W    35 KT
  12HR VT     10/0600Z 10.5N 160.9W    35 KT
  24HR VT     10/1800Z 10.9N 163.5W    40 KT
  36HR VT     11/0600Z 11.4N 166.3W    40 KT
  48HR VT     11/1800Z 11.8N 169.2W    45 KT
  72HR VT     12/1800Z 12.5N 174.7W    45 KT
  96HR VT     13/1800Z 13.0N 179.5E    40 KT
 120HR VT     14/1800Z 13.3N 173.9E    40 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BURKE