724 
 WTNT45 KNHC 160849
 TCDAT5
 HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
 500 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008
  
 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN PENETRATING THE EYE OF
 OMAR AND MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 959 MB AND TWO SPOT WINDS OF 132
 AND 124 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE CREW COULD NOT SAMPLE THE ENTIRE
 EYEWALL DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH TURBULENCE.  OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS
 OSCILLATED BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE DURING THAT
 TIME. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT OMAR REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115
 KNOTS EARLIER. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
 DETERIORATED AND HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC. THE EYE IS NO LONGER
 DISTINCT ON IR IMAGES AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN. THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KNOTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
 IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO BUT THE
 GENERAL TREND IS FOR OMAR TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ENCOUNTERS
 STRONGER SHEAR. THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL
 CHARACTERISTICS IN 96 HOURS OR SOONER.  
 
 DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND RADAR FROM PUERTO RICO
 INDICATE THAT THE CORE OF OMAR WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS CROSSED THE
 AREA OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN ST. MAARTEN AND THE VIRGIN
 ISLANDS...OR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. OMAR HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD
 SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 22 KNOTS
 AND SOON WILL CLEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE IS
 FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE
 MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR ACCELERATION AND
 A CONTINUATION OF THE NORTHEAST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 IN AGREEMENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
 GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/0900Z 19.1N  63.2W   110 KT
  12HR VT     16/1800Z 21.7N  61.0W   110 KT
  24HR VT     17/0600Z 26.0N  58.5W   100 KT
  36HR VT     17/1800Z 30.0N  55.5W    90 KT
  48HR VT     18/0600Z 33.5N  52.0W    80 KT
  72HR VT     19/0600Z 37.0N  45.0W    65 KT
  96HR VT     20/0600Z 40.0N  37.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     21/0600Z 42.0N  25.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
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