064 
 WTNT44 KNHC 160908
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
 500 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007
  
 DEAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL
 GLIMPSES OF AN EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD TOPS
 COLDER THAN -70C NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO DEAN IS UPGRADED TO THE FIRST
 HURRICANE OF THE 2007 HURRICANE SEASON.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21.  DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
 DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO BUILD
 WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS BUILDING RIDGE IS
 FORECAST TO PUSH ASIDE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF
 FLORIDA...AND SHOULD THIS HAPPEN THAT SYSTEM WOULD HAVE LITTLE
 INTERACTION WITH DEAN.   THE PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP DEAN
 MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
 PERIOD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
 SCENARIO...AND THE MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK
 THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN FIVE
 DAYS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
 PREVIOUS PACKAGE....AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS
 CONSENSUS MODELS.
 
 THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE TO KEEP DEAN FROM STRENGTHENING THROUGH
 THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH
 115 KT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE THE EXPERIMENTAL LGE MODEL
 IS CALLING FOR 127 KT.  THE GFDL CALLS FOR DEAN TO BECOME A MAJOR
 HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH ODDLY ENOUGH IT
 CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE FIRST 60 HR OF THE
 FORECAST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD FOR THE
 FIRST 96 HR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.
  
 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
 INVESTIGATING DEAN THIS AFTERNOON..AND THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV
 WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR THE 17/00Z
 ANALYSIS CYCLE.
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/0900Z 13.4N  52.3W    65 KT
  12HR VT     16/1800Z 13.9N  55.4W    70 KT
  24HR VT     17/0600Z 14.4N  59.4W    80 KT
  36HR VT     17/1800Z 14.9N  63.0W    90 KT
  48HR VT     18/0600Z 15.4N  66.5W   100 KT
  72HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N  73.5W   105 KT
  96HR VT     20/0600Z 18.0N  80.5W   110 KT
 120HR VT     21/0600Z 20.0N  87.5W   115 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN