740 
 FOPZ15 KNHC 240235
 PWSEP5
 HURRICANE ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006               
 0300 UTC THU AUG 24 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 ISLA SOCORRO   34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 ISLA CLARION   34 41   4(45)   2(47)   1(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 ISLA CLARION   50  7   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 201N 1149W 34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
  12 201N 1149W 50 88   5(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
  12 201N 1149W 64 57  14(71)   X(71)   X(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)
  
  24 207N 1163W 34 51  37(88)   5(93)   X(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)
  24 207N 1163W 50 10  54(64)   4(68)   2(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
  24 207N 1163W 64  2  34(36)   7(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
  
  36 212N 1174W 34  6  53(59)  16(75)   4(79)   1(80)   X(80)   1(81)
  36 212N 1174W 50  1  23(24)  20(44)   3(47)   2(49)   X(49)   X(49)
  36 212N 1174W 64  X   8( 8)  14(22)   2(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
  
  48 216N 1184W 34  2  23(25)  26(51)   8(59)   5(64)   1(65)   X(65)
  48 216N 1184W 50  X   5( 5)  16(21)   7(28)   3(31)   X(31)   X(31)
  48 216N 1184W 64  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
  
  
  72 220N 1200W 34  X   5( 5)  14(19)  13(32)   7(39)   2(41)   X(41)
  72 220N 1200W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   4(11)   1(12)   X(12)
  72 220N 1200W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
  
  96 225N 1215W 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   8(20)   2(22)   X(22)
  96 225N 1215W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  96 225N 1215W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
  
 120 225N 1235W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)
 120 225N 1235W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 120 225N 1235W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND    110    100      80      70      50      35      25
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART