196 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 201436
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016
 
 Shear and cool waters continue to take a toll on Paine.  The cloud
 pattern is rapidly losing organization, the the diminishing deep
 convection is displaced well northeast of the estimated low-level
 center position.  The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt
 based on the degraded satellite presentation, and this lies between
 the latest Dvorak CI and T-numbers from SAB.  Rapid weakening is
 expected to continue due to more than 20 kt of shear and SSTs
 cooling below 22C along the forecast track.  Paine should weaken to
 a depression by tonight and become a remnant low by 24 hours, before
 it reaches the Baja California peninsula.  The remnant low is
 forecast to dissipate in 36 to 48 hours, in agreement with the
 latest global model solutions.
 
 A 0844 UTC AMSR-2 pass from GCOM-W1 was very helpful in locating the
 center of Paine, which was a little to the west of previous
 estimates.  Based on extrapolation from this fix, the initial motion
 estimate is due north at 12 kt.  Paine should gradually turn north-
 northeastward in the next 24 hours as it moves around the
 northwestern side of a mid-level ridge centered over the southern
 United States, and the increasingly shallow cyclone will lose some
 forward speed prior to dissipation.  The new NHC track forecast is a
 little to the left of the previous one due to the initial position,
 and is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.
 
 Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
 expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California
 peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the
 next day or so.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in these
 areas.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  20/1500Z 26.1N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  21/0000Z 27.7N 116.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  21/1200Z 29.2N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  22/0000Z 30.2N 115.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  48H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan