751 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 050250
 TCDEP4
 
 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
 800 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2014
 
 The satellite presentation of the hurricane has not changed much
 during the past several hours.  There has been no evidence of an eye
 in either geostationary or recent microwave images, however the
 central dense overcast remains fairly symmetric with cloud tops
 colder than -80C.  Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates remain
 unchanged and the initial wind speed is kept at 80 kt.  The
 hurricane has likely peaked in intensity and some slight weakening
 is predicted during the next 24 hours while the large circulation
 interacts with land and begins to ingest some drier and more stable
 air from the west. After that time, Norbert is forecast to move over
 progressively cooler waters and into a less favorable thermodynamic
 environment.  This should lead to a faster rate of weakening and
 Norbert is predicted to become a remnant low in about 4 days.  The
 NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS/LGEM models during the
 first day or so, and in good agreement with the intensity consensus
 thereafter.
 
 Recent satellite fixes indicate that Norbert is moving north-
 northwestward or 330/7 kt.  The cyclone is expected to move
 generally northwestward around the southwestern portion of a
 mid-level ridge over northern Mexico during the next few days. The
 model guidance has once again shifted eastward during the first 48
 hours, which has required another eastward adjustment to the NHC
 track.  Although none of the guidance models show the center of
 Norbert crossing the coast of the Baja peninsula, the eastward shift
 means that the core of the hurricane is likely to pass closer to
 portions of the Pacific coast of Baja. Only a slight deviation to
 the right of the track would bring hurricane-force winds to the
 coast.  As a result, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane
 Warning for a portion of the Pacific coast of the Baja peninsula. As
 noted in the previous discussion, large spread remains in the track
 guidance after 72 hours, and the NHC track lies near the multi-model
 consensus at days 4 and 5.
 
 Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
 advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
 northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
 result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
 areas during the next few days.  Please see information from your
 local weather office for more details.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/0300Z 22.0N 111.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  05/1200Z 22.9N 111.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  06/0000Z 23.9N 112.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  06/1200Z 24.8N 113.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  07/0000Z 25.7N 115.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  08/0000Z 27.1N 117.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  09/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  10/0000Z 29.0N 118.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown