190 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 171525 CCA
 TCDEP4
 
 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  11...Corrected
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018
 
 Lane's cloud pattern has improved significantly this morning, and
 the cyclone is currently undergoing rapid intensification.  A
 warming ragged eye is now evident in GOES-15/16 IR BD-curve
 enhancement, and a white curved band with cold tops of -70 to -75C
 wraps about 90% around the cyclone's circulation.  The Dvorak
 satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the objective
 analysis support an increase of the wind speed to 85 kt for this
 advisory.
 
 Lane appears poised for further rapid strengthening during
 the next 24 hours.  Impressive outflow in all quadrants, warm SSTs,
 and the absence of earlier noted dry air intrusion all point to this
 scenario.  The peak intensity based on the hurricane models and the
 statistical guidance is forecast to be within the next 24-36
 hours.  Afterward, the thermodynamic environment looks a little
 less conducive and the large-scale models as well as the
 statistical intensity guidance agree that increasing westerly
 vertical shear will induce a slow weakening trend.  The official
 forecast is above the guidance during the first 36 hours, but is
 close to the HMON hurricane model, and is hedged toward a blend of
 the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models through the remaining
 portion of the forecast.
 
 The initial motion is estimated to be nearly due west, or 275/14 kt.
 Lane should continue to move south of a subtropical ridge in either
 a westward or west-northwestward direction through the entire
 forecast period. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the
 previous one with just a slight adjustment to the south, and is very
 close to the TVCN and NOAA HCCA consensus models.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/1500Z 11.2N 132.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  18/0000Z 11.6N 135.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  18/1200Z 12.1N 137.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
  36H  19/0000Z 12.6N 140.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
  48H  19/1200Z 13.3N 143.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
  72H  20/1200Z 14.3N 147.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
  96H  21/1200Z 14.8N 151.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  22/1200Z 15.3N 155.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts