757 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 260256
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008
 800 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2008
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
 LOW-LEVEL AND MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED...
 WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HUGGING THE COASTLINE OF
 EAST-CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
 CIRCULATIONS MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
 MAINLAND MEXICO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND
 SAB NO LONGER SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND...THEREFORE...
 JULIO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
  
 JULIO HAS DECREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS
 DECOUPLING AND IT IS NO LONGER A DEEP SYSTEM. THE LOW-LEVEL
 CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG OR
 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS IT GETS DRAWN INTO THE
 BROADER CYCLONIC GYRE OF A THERMAL LOW OVER THE REGION. THE LATEST
 MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY DIVERGENT AFTER 24 HOURS...SUGGESTING THAT
 STEERING CURRENTS WILL COLLAPSE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
 VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
  
 CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
 TERRAIN INTERACTION...AND JULIO SHOULD STEADILY SPIN DOWN AS A
 TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM JULIO WILL STILL CREATE A
 HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND
 THAT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER
 THAT REGION.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/0300Z 28.0N 112.7W    30 KT
  12HR VT     26/1200Z 28.8N 112.9W    30 KT
  24HR VT     27/0000Z 29.4N 113.2W    25 KT
  36HR VT     27/1200Z 29.8N 113.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     28/0000Z 29.9N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     29/0000Z...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART/RHOME