058 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 160234
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008
 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2008
  
 ISELLE IS MOVING ERRATICALLY THIS EVENING...AS THE INCREASING
 EASTERLY SHEAR DISPLACES THE EXPOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION FARTHER
 FROM THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST.  DVORAK SATELLITE
 CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 AND 35 KT...AND A 1726Z ASCAT
 OVERPASS INDICATED WINDS OF 30 KT OR LESS.  BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF
 THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT.  THE
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKENING
 THROUGH THE PERIOD...SURRENDERING TO THE HARSH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
 AND BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS.  IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE
 SHIPS AND THE LGEM SUGGEST AN EVEN EARLIER REMNANT LOW
 SCENARIO...IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...WHICH COULD COME TO FRUITION.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 320/2...AN EXPECTED TEMPORARY DRIFT
 NORTHWESTWARD.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A GRADUAL
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD RESUME DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
 AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  BECAUSE
 OF THE BRIEF NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 ADJUSTED JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS DERIVED
 FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/0300Z 18.2N 111.5W    30 KT
  12HR VT     16/1200Z 18.4N 111.8W    30 KT
  24HR VT     17/0000Z 18.7N 112.4W    30 KT
  36HR VT     17/1200Z 18.9N 113.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     18/0000Z 19.0N 114.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     19/0000Z 19.0N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     20/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA