710 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 182100
 TCDEP2
 HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
  
 FAUSTO IS EXHIBITING VERY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES...AND
 RECENTLY THE BEGINNINGS OF AN EYE HAVE BECOME DISCERNIBLE IN
 GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE IMAGERY.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT...AND SO DOES THE ADVISORY
 INTENSITY...BUT THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON WHY THE HURRICANE WILL
 NOT STRENGTHEN SOME.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST BY THE
 MODELS TO BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR...SO THE WARMTH OF THE WATERS
 ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER.  SEA-SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE HURRICANE ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 28 CELSIUS
 AND WILL GRADUALLY COOL FROM THIS POINT FORWARD...BUT ONLY AT ABOUT
 ONE DEGREE CELSIUS PER DAY...SO THE WATERS ARE WARM ENOUGH TO
 SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE SHIPS
 MODEL PEAKS AT 75 KT WHILE GFDL REACHES 84 KT...AND THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE.  STEADY
 WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME ONCE FAUSTO
 PASSES OVER THE SST GRADIENT.
 
 THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION
 ESTIMATE IS 290/9...AS FAUSTO HEADS TOWARD A SLOWLY DEVELOPING
 WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BECOME
 REESTABLISHED IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...SO OVERALL ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES
 IN THE HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL
 MODELS THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD.  THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD
 AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS...EXCEPT AT THE VERY END WHEN THEY
 DISAGREE ON IF OR WHEN FAUSTO WILL TURN WEST.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
 TRACK...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...RELIES ON THE GFDL AND HWRF THAT
 FORECAST A DEEPER SYSTEM THAT SHOULD CONTINUE
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...RATHER THAN A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT TURNS WEST
 SOONER AS SHOWN BY MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS.  THE NEW TRACK IS ALSO
 CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/2100Z 14.1N 108.4W    65 KT
  12HR VT     19/0600Z 14.5N 109.5W    75 KT
  24HR VT     19/1800Z 15.3N 110.9W    85 KT
  36HR VT     20/0600Z 16.2N 112.4W    85 KT
  48HR VT     20/1800Z 17.3N 114.4W    75 KT
  72HR VT     21/1800Z 19.5N 118.5W    60 KT
  96HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N 123.0W    40 KT
 120HR VT     23/1800Z 22.5N 127.5W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB