803 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 081436
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 08 2010
  
 THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER
 OF ESTELLE.  HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
 SHAPE...AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST LESS ORGANIZATION OF
 THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 50
 KT...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB. 
 ESTELLE HAS CROSSED THE 26.5C ISOTHERM AND HAS PROBABLY PEAKED IN
 INTENSITY.  DECREASING SSTS...A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND
 INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE A SLOW WEAKENING OF
 ESTELLE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT CLOSE
 TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
 THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7.  A CONTINUED WESTWARD
 TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT
 COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
 ESTELLE.  AS THE CYCLONE DECAYS...IT IS LIKELY TO GET CAUGHT UP IN
 SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF MEXICO AND TURN TOWARD THE
 EAST AS A REMNANT LOW.  THE RELIABLE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
 AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      08/1500Z 18.0N 111.0W    50 KT
  12HR VT     09/0000Z 18.1N 112.0W    45 KT
  24HR VT     09/1200Z 18.1N 113.1W    40 KT
  36HR VT     10/0000Z 18.1N 114.0W    35 KT
  48HR VT     10/1200Z 18.0N 114.7W    30 KT
  72HR VT     11/1200Z 17.6N 115.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     12/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120HR VT     13/1200Z 16.5N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE