095 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 250839
 TCDEP1
 
 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 200 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014
 
 Amanda is still rapidly intensifying.  The eye has become more
 distinct and a large ring of cloud tops colder than -70C
 surround the center.  The Dvorak classifications from TAFB
 and SAB are 6.5/127 kt and 6.0/115 kt, respectively.  A blend of
 these estimates and the latest ADT values from UW-CIMSS support
 increasing the initial wind speed to 120 kt, making Amanda a
 category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
 
 The major hurricane could gain some more strength today while the
 atmospheric and oceanic environments remain conducive for
 intensification.  After that time, however, southerly shear is
 expected to increase and that should start the weakening process.
 The GFS and ECMWF models show Amanda beginning to tilt vertically
 in response to the shear in about 24 hours, with the low- and
 mid-level centers eventually decoupling.  Gradually decreasing sea
 surface temperatures and drier mid-level air should also aid in the
 weakening trend.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the
 previous one in the short term to account for the higher initial
 wind speed, but is otherwise unchanged and follows the intensity
 model consensus IVCN.
 
 The cyclone is moving slowly west-northwestward, with the
 initial motion estimate the same as before, 295/4.  A turn to the
 northwest is expected today followed by a northward motion tonight
 as Amanda gets embedded in the flow between a mid- to upper-level
 trough to its west and a mid-level ridge to its east.  A
 northeastward turn is predicted in about 4 days when the trough to
 the west of Amanda gets closer to the system.  The NHC track
 forecast is very close to the previous one and near the latest
 FSSE and TVCE guidance.
 
 Based on the current intensity of the system, Amanda is the second
 strongest May hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin on record,
 behind Hurricane Adolph in 2001.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  25/0900Z 11.7N 110.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
  12H  25/1800Z 11.9N 111.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
  24H  26/0600Z 12.5N 111.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
  36H  26/1800Z 13.4N 111.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
  48H  27/0600Z 14.3N 111.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  28/0600Z 15.6N 111.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  29/0600Z 16.4N 111.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  30/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi