607 
 WTNT44 KNHC 310852
 TCDAT4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
 400 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016
 
 Although clusters of deep convection continue to pulsate near
 and to the southeast of the center of the tropical cyclone, there
 has been little overall change in organization overnight.  A couple
 of ASCAT passes since the previous advisory revealed peak winds of
 30 kt, so the system remains a 30-kt tropical depression for this
 advisory.  The upper-level outflow has expanded to the northwest
 and north of the cyclone, which suggests that the upper-level wind
 pattern is becoming more favorable for strengthening.  The SHIPS
 model indicates that the shear should remain low during the next day
 or so, while the cyclone moves over warm water.  This should allow
 for strengthening, and the NHC forecast calls for steady
 intensification during the next day or so, which is also supported
 by the global models.  The updated intensity forecast is in good
 agreement with the multi-model consensus.
 
 The depresssion has been meandering overnight, but is expected to
 begin a northward or northeastward motion later today.  A deepening
 trough over the southeastern United States should cause the
 tropical cyclone to accelerate north-northeastward or northeastward
 by tonight.  Although the track guidance is in good agreement on
 this scenario, the model envelope has shifted slightly westward this
 cycle, and the NHC forecast track has been nudged in that
 direction.
 
 The new forecast has required the issuance of a Tropical Storm
 Warning for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast.  The Hurricane
 Watch remains in effect since there is still a possibility that
 the system could become a hurricane before landfall. It is important
 not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this system.  Among
 other reasons, dangerous storm surge flooding is likely along the
 coast well to the east and south of the path of the center.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  31/0900Z 24.5N  88.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  31/1800Z 25.4N  87.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  01/0600Z 26.9N  86.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  01/1800Z 28.4N  85.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  02/0600Z 30.3N  83.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
  72H  03/0600Z 34.2N  76.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER
  96H  04/0600Z 37.0N  70.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  05/0600Z 39.0N  68.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown