843 
 WTNT44 KNHC 102035
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
 500 PM AST THU NOV 10 2011
 
 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE OF SEAN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
 LESS ORGANIZED...WITH CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE FEATURE APPEARING
 TO WEAKEN A BIT AND BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
 AIRCRAFT MISSION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SEAN FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
 WINDS OF 63 KT...SFMR MEASUREMENTS OF 52 KT...ALONG WITH A CENTRAL
 PRESSURE OF 983 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT
 55 KT. THE CHANCES OF SEAN BECOMING A HURRICANE APPEAR TO BE
 DIMINISHING DUE TO THE DEGRADED STRUCTURE. SINCE THE MODELS
 GENERALLY SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. BY
 TOMORROW...WEAKENING IS LIKELY...AND THIS IS ALREADY BEING HERALDED
 BY THE ERODING CIRRUS OVERFLOW ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE
 CIRCULATION. THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...
 AND IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 SEAN IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...NOW MOVING AT ABOUT 
 11 KT...ALTHOUGH RECENTLY IT MIGHT BE WOBBLING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT
 OF THAT ESTIMATE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY
 CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AS SEAN PASSES
 TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE LATEST MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED A
 BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST WAS BE NUDGED IN
 THAT DIRECTION. IN A DAY OR SO...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
 OVERTAKE SEAN AND ABSORB THE SYSTEM. THE NEW FORECAST IS CONSISTENT
 WITH THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE MODELS NOW
 SHOW SEAN DISSIPATED AS EARLY AS 24 HOURS. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  10/2100Z 30.9N  69.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  11/0600Z 32.5N  67.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  11/1800Z 36.1N  62.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  12/0600Z...ABSORBED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE