097 
 WTNT44 KNHC 302051
 TCDAT4
 
 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016
 
 Matthew has continued to rapidly strengthen at a remarkable rate
 today.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a peak
 SFMR wind of 116 kt and flight-level winds of 121 kt.  A recent
 dropsonde from the aircraft indicated that surface winds are around
 120 kt.  Based on all of these data, the initial intensity is set to
 120 kt, an increase of 55 kt in the last 24 hours.  The latest
 pressure estimate from the aircraft is 949 mb, a drop of 44 mb since
 this time yesterday.
 
 Some additional strengthening is possible in the next 12 hours or
 so, and the NHC forecast reflects that possibility, showing 125 kt
 at that time.  Given the lack of skill of the intensity guidance
 thus far, this remains a low confidence forecast, and its possible
 this could be conservative.  Since Matthew has now become a major
 hurricane, eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would lead to
 some fluctuations in intensity not shown here.  After 12 hours, a
 gradual weakening is shown, following the trend of, but above nearly
 all of the intensity guidance.  Land interaction with Cuba should
 lead to additional weakening by day 4, but Matthew is expected to
 remain a strong hurricane through the forecast period.
 
 The initial motion is still toward the west-southwest, but the
 forward speed has slowed a bit, to around 8 kt.  The track forecast
 reasoning has not changed, with Matthew expected to turn westward by
 12 hours and then gradually turn toward the north in the next 3 to 4
 days as the cyclone moves into a weakness in the subtropical ridge.
 The track model guidance is in slightly better agreement this cycle
 through 3 days, although the ECMWF remains right of and slower than
 the rest of the guidance at days 4 and 5.  The GFS, HWRF, and
 COAMPS-TC are faster and to the left late in the period, although
 the GFS has trended slower this cycle.  The new NHC track has again
 been adjusted a little to the left through 72 hours given the
 initial position and motion, and after that time is along the
 previous official forecast but slower, following the slower trend in
 the guidance this cycle.  The NHC forecast is near the middle of the
 guidance envelope and is a little to the east of the multi-model
 consensus at days 4 and 5.
 
 It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
 errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
 Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
 from Matthew in Florida.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/2100Z 13.5N  71.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
  12H  01/0600Z 13.3N  72.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
  24H  01/1800Z 13.5N  73.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
  36H  02/0600Z 14.1N  74.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
  48H  02/1800Z 15.2N  75.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
  72H  03/1800Z 18.2N  76.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  04/1800Z 22.0N  76.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  05/1800Z 25.0N  76.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan