624 
 WTNT44 KNHC 110853
 TCDAT4
  
 HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
 500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013
  
 CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH HUMBERTO DURING THE
 LAST FEW HOURS...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
 CYCLONE ALSO BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.  THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 6Z
 SUPPORTED ANYTHING FROM 55-65 KT...AND GIVEN THE NOTABLE
 STRENGTHENING OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND OVERALL INCREASE
 IN ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL WINDS ARE RAISED TO 65 KT.  HUMBERTO
 HAS ABOUT A DAY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND
 COOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND.  IN A FEW DAYS...
 ALTHOUGH WATER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR
 AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE CYCLONE
 GRADUALLY WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE WELL
 CLUSTERED...SO THE LATEST NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 HUMBERTO APPEARS TO BE TURNING TO THE RIGHT...NOW MOVING 330/7.  THE
 CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH SOON AND ACCELERATE SOME WHILE IT
 MOVES BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN AFRICA AND A TROUGH OVER
 THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...HUMBERTO IS
 LIKELY TO TAKE A HARD LEFT TURN DUE TO IT RUNNING AGAINST A RATHER
 STOUT RIDGE IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC.  WITH HUMBERTO
 BECOMING A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM IN THE LONGER RANGE...IT MAKES SENSE
 TO STAY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN THE
 STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS
 BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...STAYING EQUATORWARD OF
 THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  11/0900Z 16.0N  28.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  11/1800Z 17.2N  29.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  12/0600Z 19.0N  29.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  12/1800Z 20.9N  29.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  13/0600Z 22.5N  30.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  14/0600Z 23.8N  33.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  15/0600Z 24.2N  39.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  16/0600Z 25.5N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE