497 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 042057
 TCDEP4
 
 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
 200 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2014
 
 Norbert has changed little on satellite images today, with the
 central dense overcast remaining fairly solid, and only faint hints
 of an eye.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft found
 maximum 700 mb winds of 84 kt, with peak SFMR values of 78 kt. These
 data support an initial intensity of 80 kt for this advisory, which
 happen to correspond well to a blend of all the currently available
 Dvorak estimates.
 
 The hurricane is probably near its peak intensity since it will soon
 move over somewhat cooler SSTs and become more influenced by drier
 stable air from the subtropical eastern Pacific waters.  Model
 guidance is in fairly good agreement on the cyclone gradually losing
 strength over the next few days, and little change has been made to
 the previous forecast, which remains close to the model consensus.
 The cyclone is expected to transition into a remnant low in about 4
 days when it moves over waters cooler than 24C.
 
 Norbert is moving northwestward at about 7 kt. A mid-level ridge is
 expected to persist over northwestern Mexico, keeping Norbert on the
 same general course during the next few days.  Model guidance has
 shifted a bit closer to the southern Baja California peninsula
 during the first couple of days, but all of the guidance keeps the
 center a relatively safe distance offshore.  Thereafter, the key to
 the long range forecast appears to be how much ridging rebuilds in
 over northwestern Mexico in the wake of a weak shortwave.  The ECMWF
 and the UKMET have a stronger ridge, which keeps Norbert, or its
 remnants, farther offshore of southern California. The GFS-based
 guidance moves Norbert closer to northwestern Mexico or southern
 California, mostly due to a weaker ridge.  The dynamical model
 consensus has changed little during the past few cycles, so I have
 elected to keep the previous forecast almost the same at days 4-5,
 which is just a bit south of the latest consensus aids.
 
 Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
 advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
 northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
 result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
 areas during the next few days.  Please see information from your
 local weather office for more details.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/2100Z 21.2N 110.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  05/0600Z 22.0N 111.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  05/1800Z 23.0N 112.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  06/0600Z 23.9N 113.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  06/1800Z 24.8N 114.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  07/1800Z 26.4N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  08/1800Z 28.1N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  09/1800Z 29.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake