844 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 170834
 TCDEP4
 
 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  10
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018
 
 Lane continues to gradually strengthen.  Recent microwave images
 show a well-defined low-level eye, but this feature is not yet
 apparent in geostationary satellite images.  The latest
 satellite images show an organized central dense overcast, but
 convection has decreased in the outer bands.  An average of the
 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB yields an initial intensity of 70
 kt.
 
 The environmental factors suggest that continued steady or rapid
 strengthening is likely during the next couple of days.  However,
 there could be some intrusions of dry air that might interrupt the
 rate of strengthening.  Nonetheless, it seems likely that Lane will
 become a major hurricane within the next couple of days.  By the end
 of the forecast period, the environment looks a little less ideal
 with drier air and an increase in shear likely causing slow
 weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the
 previous one, and it remains at the high end of the model guidance.
 
 After wobbling to the north late yesterday, Lane has resumed a more
 westward motion at 14 kt.  The hurricane is expected to move
 westward to west-northwestward during the next several days as it
 continues to be steered by a subtropical ridge to its north.  There
 is some north-south spread amongst the models with the UKMET on the
 southern side of the guidance and the GFS and HWRF on the northern
 side.  This spread appears to be associated with how much influence
 a mid- to upper-level low off the Baja California coast has on
 Lane's steering flow.  The NHC track forecast lies near the middle
 of the guidance envelope, favoring the various consensus models, and
 is slightly to the left of the previous forecast track.  Lane is
 expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin in 36 to 48 hours.
 
 The initial 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted outward
 based on a 0544 UTC ASCAT-B pass.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/0900Z 11.4N 131.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  17/1800Z 11.8N 133.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  18/0600Z 12.2N 136.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
  36H  18/1800Z 12.7N 139.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
  48H  19/0600Z 13.4N 141.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
  72H  20/0600Z 14.5N 146.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  21/0600Z 15.0N 150.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 120H  22/0600Z 15.5N 155.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi