370 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 252041
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008
 200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2008
  
 THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...
 HOWEVER SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT IS VERY
 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
 TOWN OF ROSALIA.  AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE
 OF 999.5 MB WAS RECEIVED A FEW HOURS AGO FROM A STATION NEAR BURRO
 COVE...JUST SOUTH OF MULEGE.  THIS WAS THE BASIS FOR THE SLIGHTLY
 LOWER MINIMUM PRESSURE ON THE EARLIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.  THE
 SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS DEGRADED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
 NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
 SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM.  HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
 ESTIMATE REMAINS 35 KT.
 
 JULIO CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 340/10 KT.  THE
 FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED AS JULIO IS FORECAST TO
 CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL HEADING DURING THE 2-3 DAYS WITH
 A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS TO NORTH OF THE
 SYSTEM.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL PREDICT A SEPARATION OF
 THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH THE
 MID-LEVEL CENTER TURNING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO...WHILE
 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 
 THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO
 AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 EVEN THOUGH JULIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK OVER THE WARM
 WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
 INCREASE SOON...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. THE NEW INTENSITY
 FORECAST SHOWS JULIO BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE
 NEXT 12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW
 WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
 MOISTURE FROM JULIO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
 STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
 RAINFALL OVER THAT REGION.
    
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/2100Z 27.5N 112.4W    35 KT
  12HR VT     26/0600Z 28.6N 112.9W    30 KT
  24HR VT     26/1800Z 29.5N 113.3W    25 KT
  36HR VT     27/0600Z 29.9N 113.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     27/1800Z 30.2N 113.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN