995 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 240240
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
 900 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016
 
 Convection associated with Frank has again increased this evening,
 although microwave imagery indicates that it remains south of the
 low-level center due to moderate northeasterly shear.  Various
 subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates average near
 55 kt, and that remains the initial intensity.
 
 The center of Frank has wobbled a bit during the past few hours,
 but a longer-term motion is 305/7, which is a little to the right
 of the previous advisory.  Frank should move slowly to the
 west-northwest or west through the forecast period on the south side
 of the subtropical ridge over the northeastern Pacific.  The new
 forecast track is nudged a little north of the previous track early
 in the forecast period based on the initial position and motion, and
 then is near the previous track toward the end of the forecast
 period.
 
 Frank should be over sea surface temperatures of higher than 26 deg
 C for about 48 more hours.  However, it appears unlikely that the
 current shear will decrease enough to allow Frank to strengthen into
 a hurricane during that time.  The new intensity forecast follows
 the previous forecast, as well as the SHIPS and LGEM models, in
 keeping the intensity at 55 kt for 24 hours, followed by slight
 weakening from 36-48 hours.  After 48 hours, decreasing sea surface
 temperatures and encroaching dry air should cause Frank to decay,
 with the cyclone forecast to become a remnant low by 120 hours.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/0300Z 19.6N 111.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  24/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  25/0000Z 20.5N 113.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  25/1200Z 20.9N 114.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  26/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  27/0000Z 21.0N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  28/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  29/0000Z 23.0N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven