870 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 181501
 TCDEP2
 HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
  
 AN EYE IS NOT YET DISCERNIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE OR INFRARED
 IMAGERY...BUT A SSMIS OVERPASS FROM 1253Z THAT JUST CAME IN REVEALS
 ABOUT HALF OF AN EYEWALL HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z WERE A CONSENSUS 65 KT...AND
 COMBINED WITH THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE PROVIDE ENOUGH EVIDENCE THAT
 FAUSTO HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...THE THIRD OF THE 2008 EASTERN
 PACIFIC SEASON.  CONDITIONS APPEAR RIPE FOR CONTINUED
 STRENGTHENING...WITH NOT MUCH WIND SHEAR AND RATHER WARM SSTS ALONG
 THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
 IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
 MODELS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNSURPRISING 285/11.  FEW CHANGES
 TO THE MOTION ARE INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
 FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT
 TEMPORARILY IN A DAY OR TWO AS A LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA...BUT
 THE MODELS INDICATE IT WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ON DAYS 3-5. 
 THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS...BUT THE
 CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST...WHICH IS MOSTLY A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/1500Z 13.6N 108.0W    65 KT
  12HR VT     19/0000Z 14.0N 109.3W    75 KT
  24HR VT     19/1200Z 14.7N 110.7W    85 KT
  36HR VT     20/0000Z 15.7N 112.1W    85 KT
  48HR VT     20/1200Z 16.7N 113.9W    85 KT
  72HR VT     21/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W    70 KT
  96HR VT     22/1200Z 20.0N 122.5W    60 KT
 120HR VT     23/1200Z 21.5N 127.0W    45 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB