839 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 241431
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number  10
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019
 
 Deep convection associated with the cyclone has continued to
 decrease in coverage this morning, however, there is still a
 broken band of convection over the southeastern portion of the
 circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB
 and SAB support maintaining an intensity of 30 kt for this
 advisory.  Dalila will be moving over SSTs of 23-24 deg C later
 today, and into a dry and more stable airmass.  This should
 result in weakening, and the system is expected to degenerate
 into a remnant low within 24 hours.
 
 It appears that Dalila has taken a northward jog this morning, but
 the longer-term motion estimate is 320/6 kt.  There has been no
 change to the track forecast reasoning. Dalila should continue
 moving northwestward today, then turn west-northwestward as it comes
 under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow.  The NHC
 track forecast has been adjusted slightly north of the previous
 advisory due to the more northward initial position, however, the
 updated official forecast is still near the middle of the guidance
 envelope and close to the multi-model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/1500Z 20.5N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  25/0000Z 21.1N 119.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  25/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  26/0000Z 22.3N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  26/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown