858 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 090235
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
 900 PM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016
 
 Visible satellite imagery shows that Celia has an expansive cloud
 shield, with a compact CDO feature and multiple elongated cloud
 bands.  However, deep convection is disjointed and fairly limited
 near the low-level center.  Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB
 and SAB are unchanged from six hours ago, and the CIMSS ADT
 estimate has actually decreased during that time.  Therefore, the
 initial intensity is left at 40 kt.
 
 Celia's center temporarily moved northward earlier today, but the
 average motion over the past 12 hours is estimated to be
 northwestward, or 305/8 kt.  A subtropical ridge extending westward
 from northern Mexico should cause Celia to resume a west-
 northwestward to westward motion but at a faster forward speed
 through day 3.  The cyclone is expected to reach the southwestern
 periphery of the ridge by day 4, which should cause Celia to turn
 northwestward by the end of the forecast period.  The track model
 spread is low, especially through day 3, and the NHC track forecast
 is very close to the various consensus models.  This updated
 forecast is a little north of the previous one during the first 24
 hours to account for Celia's recent northward jog.
 
 High-resolution microwave SST data indicate that Celia's center is
 now moving over the coldest portion of Blas's cold wake, which could
 be contributing to the relative lack of central deep convection.
 Celia will continue moving over the cold wake for another day or
 so, and only gradual strengthening is anticipated in the short
 term.  Warmer waters and low shear should allow faster
 intensification to begin in 36-48 hours, with Celia likely
 reaching its peak intensity in about 3 days.  Cooler waters should
 then induce a gradual weakening trend on days 4 and 5.  In light of
 the latest guidance, no significant changes were made to the
 previous NHC intensity forecast.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/0300Z 13.7N 114.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  09/1200Z 14.2N 115.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  10/0000Z 14.5N 118.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  10/1200Z 14.6N 120.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  11/0000Z 14.7N 122.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  12/0000Z 15.5N 127.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  13/0000Z 17.0N 131.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  14/0000Z 19.5N 135.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg