134 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 092034
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011
 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2011
  
 VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CALVIN CONTINUES
 TO WEAKEN QUICKLY...WITH THE CENTER NOW EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF A
 DIMINISHING AREA OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40
 KT USING A BLEND OF DVORAK CI AND FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
 SAB...AND A 1745 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED A SMALL PATCH OF 35-40
 KT WINDS EAST OF THE CENTER. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE
 CYCLONE MOVES OVER EVEN COLDER WATERS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 SHOWS CALVIN BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY TOMORROW IN AGREEMENT WITH
 THE SHIPS AND LGEM. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 48 TO 72
 HOURS...BUT COULD OCCUR SOONER.
  
 THE CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...BUT
 THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES
 AT 8 KNOTS.  AS CALVIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...IT WILL BE STEERED
 GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL
 DISSIPATION.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
 PREVIOUS ONE AFTER ADJUSTING FOR THE INITIAL POSITION.
  
 THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON 09/1734Z
 ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  09/2100Z 17.4N 111.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  10/0600Z 17.8N 113.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  10/1800Z 18.3N 114.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  11/0600Z 18.8N 116.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  11/1800Z 19.3N 117.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART