769 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 250247
 TCDEP1
 
 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 800 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014
 
 Amanda has continued to rapidly intensify over the past few hours,
 with the cloud pattern now featuring a ring of very cold cloud tops
 surrounding an eye that has quickly cleared out and warmed in the
 last several infrared images. The latest Dvorak satellite estimates
 include a T5.5/102 kt from SAB at 00Z, a T6.0/115 kt from a special
 02Z TAFB classification, and 92 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT at 0200Z.
 Based on a blend of these, the initial intensity has been set to 100
 kt, and this could be conservative given the trends seen in the
 latest infrared images.
 
 Additional intensification appears likely over the next 12 to 24
 hours. The NHC forecast in the short term is above all of the
 guidance, but is closest to the FSU Superensemble. By 36 hours,
 steady weakening is expected to begin as Amanda encounters
 increasing shear ahead of an approaching mid-/upper-level trough and
 SSTs cool along the forecast track. The NHC forecast late in the
 period is close to the intensity consensus.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 295/04. Amanda is expected to turn
 northwestward by 24 hours and northward by 48 hours as the mid-level
 ridge centered over Mexico weakens. After that time, a continued
 slow northward motion is expected as a weakening Amanda moves
 between a re-building ridge to the east and a mid/upper-level
 trough approaching from the west. The new NHC track forecast is
 close to the previous one and remains along the east side of the
 track guidance envelope. At days 4 and 5 the NHC track is close to
 the FSU Superensemble.
 
 The operational intensity estimate of Amanda at 00Z was less than
 100 kt. Therefore, this makes Amanda the second earliest major
 hurricane on record in the eastern North Pacific basin, behind only
 Hurricane Bud of 2012.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  25/0300Z 11.6N 110.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  25/1200Z 11.8N 111.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  26/0000Z 12.3N 111.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
  36H  26/1200Z 12.9N 111.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  27/0000Z 13.8N 111.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  28/0000Z 15.0N 111.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  29/0000Z 16.0N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  30/0000Z 17.0N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan