643 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 291506
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006
 800 AM PDT MON MAY 29 2006
  
 LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT THIS
 MORNING...AND THE EARLY SATELLITE VISIBLE PICTURES PROVIDE LITTLE
 ADDITIONAL ASSISTANCE. THE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECREASE IN
 OVERALL DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER SOME CLUSTERS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED
 OVER THE LAST HOUR. A RECENT 1304Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS NO WINDS
 OVER 30 KT...AND AN ANALYSIS OF THE AMBIGUITIES INDICATE THE LOW-
 LEVEL CENTER IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
 POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO A GENEROUS 35 KT...
 BASED UPON THE 1304 QUIKSCAT PASS AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM
 BOTH TAFB AND AFWA. DESPITE THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...SOME
 MODEST RE-STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE IF THE SHEAR DECREASES
 OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 270/02 KT. THE QUIKSCAT PASS
 INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE WESTWARD TURN AWAY FROM THE COAST HAS
 BEGUN AND IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
 THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A RIDGE TO
 THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIFTS
 OUT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING A
 WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY OUTLIER...
 NOGAPS...CONTINUES TO TAKE ALETTA ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK
 PARALLELING THE COASTLINE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT SLIGHTLY FASTER TO THE WEST. 
  
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/1500Z 16.0N 101.4W    35 KT
  12HR VT     30/0000Z 16.0N 102.0W    40 KT
  24HR VT     30/1200Z 16.0N 102.6W    45 KT
  36HR VT     31/0000Z 16.0N 103.5W    50 KT
  48HR VT     31/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W    50 KT
  72HR VT     01/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W    45 KT
  96HR VT     02/1200Z 15.5N 108.0W    45 KT
 120HR VT     03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W    40 KT
  
  
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