648 
 WTPA41 PHFO 092041
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
 1100 AM HST SAT JAN 09 2016
  
 TROPICAL STORM PALI HAD BEEN DEVOID OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
 THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED
 NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
 FROM 2.5/35 KT FROM HFO...2.0/30 KT FROM SAB...AND 1.5/25 KT FROM
 JTWC. BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AT 0845 UTC AND THE
 REESTABLISHMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WE WILL KEEP
 THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
 
 PALI HAS MADE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST...WITH ITS CURRENT MOTION AT
 270/02 KT. PALI REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A ROUGHLY WEST TO
 EAST ORIENTED...LOW LATITUDE TROUGH THAT RUNS THROUGH THE CYCLONE.
 THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH MARKS A ZONE BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF
 ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...MUCH OF WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE
 EQUATOR...AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF A DEEP RIDGE
 CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 18N. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
 PALI STALLING WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS...WITH A RATHER SCATTERED MEANDERING TRACK FORECAST BY THE
 MODELS. ALL MODELS THEN SHOW PALI DIVING SOUTHWARD LATE IN DAY 3. 
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. 
 
 EASTERLY WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE SYSTEM WITH UW-CIMSS
 INDICATING AROUND 11 KT WHILE SHIPS INDICATES 15 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR
 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE SHEAR
 DIRECTION GRADUALLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY DAYS 4 AND 5.
 THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE
 FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF BEING THE BIGGEST OUTLIERS
 STRENGTHENING PALI INTO A HURRICANE BY AROUND 72 HOURS. THE
 ECMWF SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
 PERIOD WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS IT THE FASTEST. THE LATEST INTENSITY
 FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WEAKENS
 PALI TO A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED
 TO REMAIN A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
 WHICH FALLS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE. 
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  09/2100Z  7.7N 174.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  10/0600Z  7.7N 174.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  10/1800Z  7.7N 174.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  11/0600Z  7.7N 175.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  11/1800Z  7.6N 175.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  12/1800Z  6.7N 175.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  13/1800Z  5.3N 176.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  14/1800Z  3.3N 176.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BURKE