414 
 WTPA45 PHFO 210906
 TCDCP5
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP052015
 1100 PM HST SUN SEP 20 2015
  
 THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION /LLCC/ OF FIVE-C APPEARED TO BE
 CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS
 THE SUN SET...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE
 PASSES AVAILABLE ON THE FNMOC AND NRL WEB SITES SUGGEST THE
 PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IS NOW DISPLACED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN
 LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH HAVE ESTIMATED TOPS TO NEAR
 53 THOUSAND FEET. THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL
 WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF FIVE-C WERE 25 TO 30 KT FROM THE
 WEST-SOUTHWEST ACCORDING TO THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES. DUE TO
 THIS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 2.0/30 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND 1.5/25 KT
 FROM JTWC. THEREFORE...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30
 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
 OR 025 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISMS FOR THIS
 SYSTEM ARE A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH FAR TO THE WEST NEAR LONGITUDE
 173E...AND A DEEP RIDGE LOCATED FAR TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE
 SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
 GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN
 INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES DRAWN TOWARD
 THE DEEP TROUGH. MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE
 REMAINS REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK HAS
 BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY AND NUDGED TO THE LEFT TO MORE CLOSELY FOLLOW
 THE LATEST TVCN AND GFEX CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT
 TIME...THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AT 72 AND 96 HOURS BASED ON THE
 LATEST INPUT FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER /OPC/.
  
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY PACKAGE. AS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD...
 THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED MORE THAN 500 NM TO THE NORTH SHOULD
 CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO STEADILY INCREASE. AS A RESULT...THE
 SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 12
 TO 24 HOURS. FIVE-C WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO UNDERGO AN 
 EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUING TO
 SHOW THIS WILL HAPPEN BEYOND 48 HOURS...WITH THE LATEST OPC INPUT
 INDICATING THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE 
 72 AND 96 HOUR INTENSITY AND 72 HOUR 34 KT WIND RADII FORECASTS 
 WERE ALSO COORDINATED WITH OPC.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
 PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
 SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
 TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
 APPROACH THESE VULNERABLE LOW LYING ISLANDS AND ATOLLS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/0900Z 24.4N 171.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  21/1800Z 26.0N 171.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  22/0600Z 28.3N 172.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  22/1800Z 31.0N 173.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  23/0600Z 35.0N 175.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  24/0600Z 43.4N 175.0E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  25/0600Z 50.0N 172.5E   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON