578 
 WTPA41 PHFO 090844
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
 1100 PM HST FRI AUG 08 2008
 
 THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION THAT KIKA EXHIBITED DURING THE DAYLIGHT
 HOURS HAS CONTINUED THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW
 UNDER PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THE 0600 UTC SATELLITE INTENSITY 
 ESTIMATE FROM PHFO WAS 35 KT WHEREAS JTWC AND SAB HAD 30 KT. GIVEN 
 THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE...AND A JUST-RECEIVED QUIKSCAT
 PASS THAT CONTAINED /RAIN-FLAGGED/ 40 KT WINDS...KIKA IS DEEMED TO
 BE A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN. 
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION OF 280/12KT REMAINS UNCHANGED SINCE MORNING...AS
 DOES THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY. A DEEP ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
 WILL KEEP KIKA MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST...WITH THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE...AND VERY
 CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
  
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC...AS SHEAR HAS
 BEEN LIGHT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES /SST/ SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR 
 INTENSIFICATION...YET KIKA HAS NOT DONE SO IN THE 24 HOURS LEADING 
 UP TO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT KIKA MAY 
 BE IN LINE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS INDICATED BY SHIPS AND 
 CONSENSUS MODELS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED 
 UPWARD. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL 
 HAVE TO BE INCREASED FURTHER...AS WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR AND SST ABOVE 
 OR NEAR 26.5 LIE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND 
 72 HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER AN AREA OF HIGHER 
 OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...YET WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE 
 MARGINALLY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION FORECAST. 
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/0900Z 10.1N 156.5W    35 KT
  12HR VT     09/1800Z 10.4N 158.5W    35 KT
  24HR VT     10/0600Z 10.8N 161.1W    35 KT
  36HR VT     10/1800Z 11.2N 163.5W    40 KT
  48HR VT     11/0600Z 11.6N 166.1W    40 KT
  72HR VT     12/0600Z 12.4N 170.9W    40 KT
  96HR VT     13/0600Z 13.0N 176.2W    45 KT
 120HR VT     14/0600Z 13.3N 178.4E    45 KT
  
 $$
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