087 
 WTNT45 KNHC 032039
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2005
  
 ALTHOUGH THE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS...FROM 700 MB DUE TO AIRSPACE
 RESTRICTIONS...WERE ONLY 41 KT...DROPSONDES IN THE NORTHEAST AND
 SOUTHEAST QUADRANT REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 50 KT...WHICH
 WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. STAN HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP COLD
 CONVECTION SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THUS FAR THE CONVECTION
 HAS BEEN RESTRICTED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
 STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING...WITH THE
 SHIPS MODEL NOW TAKING STAN UP TO 92 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE GFDL
 CONTINUES TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THIS
 GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WIND FIELDS FROM
 GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SOME DECOUPLING OF THE MID
 AND LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS COULD OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF
 LANDFALL...AND IF THIS OCCURS I WOULD EXPECT SOME LAST MINUTE
 WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER.
  
 EARLIER IN THE DAY STAN MOVED LITTLE...WITH THE CENTER LAGGING
 PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY TO THE EAST.
 HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX SUGGESTS THAT A GENERALLY
 WESTWARD MOTION HAS RESUMED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASED ON A
 LONGER-TERM AVERAGE AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE 255/6.  MODEL GUIDANCE
 GENERALLY AGREES THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NORTH
 OF STAN.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS BRACKETED BY THE UKMET AND
 NOGAPS...WHICH TAKE STAN WESTWARD TO A LANDFALL IN 36 TO 48
 HOURS...AND THE GFDL...WHICH TAKES STAN SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A
 LANDFALL IN 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE
 EXTREMES...CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS...AND
 A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/2100Z 20.0N  92.6W    50 KT
  12HR VT     04/0600Z 19.7N  93.5W    60 KT
  24HR VT     04/1800Z 19.4N  94.2W    70 KT
  36HR VT     05/0600Z 19.2N  95.0W    80 KT
  48HR VT     05/1800Z 19.1N  95.8W    80 KT
  72HR VT     06/1800Z 19.0N  97.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
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