165 
 WTNT44 KNHC 152036
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
 500 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007
  
 DEAN CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS
 HAVE WARMED RECENTLY...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES
 INDICATE A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. AMSU AND
 TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE ALSO SUGGESTED THE FORMATION OF A
 PARTIAL EYEWALL. MOST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES ARE INCREASING...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
 55 KT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE
 PAST SIX HOURS...AROUND 285/19. THIS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
 WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING TO
 THE NORTH OF DEAN STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...FORCING THE STORM ON MORE
 OF A WESTWARD COURSE TOMORROW. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT
 ANY INTERACTION WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
 BAHAMAS WILL BE LIMITED AS THAT FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
 WESTWARD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH WELL AHEAD OF DEAN. NUMERICAL TRACK
 GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING THE
 STORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 5
 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH DURING
 THE FIRST 36 HOURS...BUT IS MUCH FASTER AND TO THE WEST OF THE
 PREVIOUS TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
 CONSENSUS.
 
 BASED ON WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW ABOUT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE DO NOT
 SEEM TO BE TOO MANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO A FUTURE INTENSIFICATION
 OF DEAN.  GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
 ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS
 INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN COMBINATION WITH VERY DEEP WARM
 WATERS...THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL
 HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE
 PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
 THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF...AND LGEM MODELS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/2100Z 13.1N  47.9W    55 KT
  12HR VT     16/0600Z 13.5N  50.8W    65 KT
  24HR VT     16/1800Z 14.1N  54.7W    70 KT
  36HR VT     17/0600Z 14.6N  58.6W    75 KT
  48HR VT     17/1800Z 15.1N  62.3W    85 KT
  72HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N  69.5W    95 KT
  96HR VT     19/1800Z 17.0N  76.0W   105 KT
 120HR VT     20/1800Z 18.5N  83.0W   115 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE