897 
 WTNT43 KNHC 112035
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
 
 THE LAST RECON MISSION FOUND 80 KT AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WHICH
 SUPPORTED THE UPGRADE OF CHARLEY TO A HURRICANE.  SINCE THAT TIME
 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A RAGGED
 BANDING-TYPE EYE SHOWING UP INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
 IMAGES.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER ALL
 QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST...PROBABLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
 WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS.  HOWEVER THIS LOW
 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...SO THE
 ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE...AND THE OCEAN VERY
 FAVORABLE...FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE LAND MASS OF WESTERN CUBA
 SHOULD CAUSE AT MOST A TEMPORARY INTERRUPTION OF THE
 INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. 
 
 THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT MORE AND...AFTER WOBBLING A
 LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE
 RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE...290/15.  I SEE NO MAJOR CHANGES
 TO THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN SINCE THE LAST
 ADVISORY.  CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO CURVE AROUND THE WESTERN
 PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IN ABOUT
 48 HOURS...A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO
 ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  THE CURRENT
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN
 GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL RUN...AS WELL
 AS WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
 
 BASED ON THE 36 HOUR FORECAST WIND RADII AND TRACK FORECAST
 UNCERTAINTIES...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE
 SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD...AND THE
 FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/2100Z 17.0N  77.5W    65 KT
  12HR VT     12/0600Z 18.3N  79.5W    75 KT
  24HR VT     12/1800Z 20.5N  81.5W    80 KT
  36HR VT     13/0600Z 23.2N  82.5W    80 KT...NORTH COAST OF CUBA
  48HR VT     13/1800Z 26.0N  82.5W    90 KT
  72HR VT     14/1800Z 35.0N  79.5W    45 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     15/1800Z 43.5N  72.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     16/1800Z 49.0N  60.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
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