726 
 WTNT41 KNHC 290900
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005
  
 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE BETA HAS
 BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS
 STRENGTHENED INTO THE 13TH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON. A
 29/0211Z SSMI OVERPASS THAT WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY REVEALED A VERY SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGEST
 CONVECTION... WHICH MEANS BETA WAS PROBABLY A HURRICANE AT 00Z. THE
 CURRENT INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 320/03. THE CENTER
 POSITION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE UNTIL THE PAST HOUR WHEN AN
 EYE FEATURE/PRONOUNCED WARM SPOT BECAME APPARENT IN INFRARED
 IMAGERY NORTH OF PROVIDENCIA ISLAND. THE OVERALL MOTION...HOWEVER
 ...HAS BEEN VERY SLOW AND BETA MAY EVEN BE STATIONARY. THE COMPACT
 HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE THAT LIES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES... WESTERN CARIBBEAN
 SEA... AND CENTRAL AMERICA. MOST OF THE NHC MODELS CONTINUE TO
 OVERESTIMATE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
 INSIST ON DRIVING BETA WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
 SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER... THEY
 HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THIS MOTION FOR NEARLY 3 DAYS NOW AND IT
 HASN'T HAPPENED YET. THE EXCEPTIONS HAVE BEEN THE UKMET... CANADIAN
 AND SOME OF THE SIMPLER STATISTICAL MODELS... WHICH HAVE BEEN TAKING
 BETA ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AN INTO
 THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THOSE MODELS HAVE HAD
 A NORTHWARD BIAS AND ALSO A FAST SPEED BIAS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
 CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS INDUCING THE
 WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
 ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
 SHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BETA TO GRADUALLY BUILD
 WESTWARD AND SLOWLY NUDGE THE HURRICANE INTO NICARAGUA. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES
 BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE MENTIONED EARLIER.
  
 THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE
 VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW 10 KT BY 24 HOURS. THE
 VERY WARM SSTS AND THE UNUSUALLY MOIST MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
 ARE CONDUCIVE TO BETA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... IF COLD UPWELLING
 DOES NOT OCCUR BENEATH THE SLOW MOVING CYCLONE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
 BETA COULD BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3
 HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.
 
 REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL
 CYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
 AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA... CAUSING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE... AND
 LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. IN ADDITION... SOME
 OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA MAY GET DRAWN
 INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF
 MEXICO... RESULTING IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
 ACROSS CUBA... FLORIDA... AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY
 THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/0900Z 13.7N  81.5W    70 KT
  12HR VT     29/1800Z 14.1N  82.1W    80 KT
  24HR VT     30/0600Z 14.3N  83.0W    90 KT
  36HR VT     30/1800Z 14.4N  83.9W    50 KT...INLAND NERN NICARAGUA
  48HR VT     31/0600Z 14.4N  84.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
  72HR VT     01/0600Z 14.4N  86.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
  96HR VT     02/0600Z 14.5N  88.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 120HR VT     03/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
  
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