775 
 FOPZ15 KNHC 231500
 PWSEP5
 HURRICANE ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9                
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006               
 1500 UTC WED AUG 23 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 ISLA SOCORRO   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 ISLA SOCORRO   50 11   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
  
 ISLA CLARION   34 45  31(76)   2(78)   X(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)
 ISLA CLARION   50  4  22(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 ISLA CLARION   64  1   8( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 190N 1132W 34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
  12 190N 1132W 50 82   9(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
  12 190N 1132W 64 45  20(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
  
  24 200N 1152W 34 16  72(88)   6(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
  24 200N 1152W 50  2  59(61)   9(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
  24 200N 1152W 64  X  34(34)  10(44)   1(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)
  
  36 208N 1168W 34  2  38(40)  36(76)   6(82)   2(84)   X(84)   X(84)
  36 208N 1168W 50  X  10(10)  33(43)   7(50)   2(52)   X(52)   X(52)
  36 208N 1168W 64  X   3( 3)  20(23)   5(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
  
  48 213N 1180W 34  X  10(10)  40(50)  15(65)   6(71)   X(71)   X(71)
  48 213N 1180W 50  X   2( 2)  18(20)  11(31)   4(35)   1(36)   X(36)
  48 213N 1180W 64  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   8(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)
  
  
  72 220N 1195W 34  X   2( 2)  16(18)  17(35)  12(47)   1(48)   X(48)
  72 220N 1195W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   7(18)   1(19)   X(19)
  72 220N 1195W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
  
  
  96 225N 1210W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)  11(26)   2(28)   1(29)
  96 225N 1210W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
  96 225N 1210W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
  
  
 120 225N 1220W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   9(16)   2(18)   X(18)
 120 225N 1220W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 120 225N 1220W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND    110    115      95      85      60      40      30
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB