424 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 232056
 TCDEP2
 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022009
 200 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
  
 DESPITE THE RELATIVE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE SFMR ON THE
 AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK SURFACE
 WINDS OF 63 KT AND 67 KT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEST OF THE CENTER...
 RESPECTIVELY.  ALTHOUGH THE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN
 SOMEWHAT LESS...TWO DROPSONDES RELEASED EAST OF THE CENTER ALSO
 MEASURED ROUGHLY 65 KT SURFACE WINDS...WHICH SUPPORT THE SFMR
 MEASUREMENTS.  BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS ANDRES IS BEING UPGRADED
 TO A HURRICANE AND IT WAS POSSIBLY EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER THIS
 MORNING.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANDRES WILL NOT
 STRENGTHEN ANY MORE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
 SLIGHT WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MORE STEADY
 WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE
 STABLE AIR MASS IN 36-48 HOURS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
 SHOW ENOUGH LAND INTERACTION THAT THEY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE WITHIN
 12-24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CENTER
 JUST OFF THE COAST AND ASSUMES THAT ANDRES WILL TURN MORE
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST
 IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE UPDATED
 FORECAST IS CLOSE THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 12-24 HOURS...THEN
 FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND BAMM...AND BAMS THEREAFTER.  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/2100Z 18.6N 105.2W    65 KT
  12HR VT     24/0600Z 19.9N 106.4W    60 KT
  24HR VT     24/1800Z 20.9N 107.6W    50 KT
  36HR VT     25/0600Z 21.7N 109.0W    40 KT
  48HR VT     25/1800Z 22.4N 110.6W    30 KT
  72HR VT     26/1800Z 23.2N 113.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     27/1800Z 23.5N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN