827 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 170243
 TCDEP4
 
 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number   9
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018
 
 Visible, infrared, and microwave satellite imagery indicate that
 Lane's overall cloud pattern has continued to improve, with several
 spiral bands and a more symmetrical outflow pattern having
 developed. Although the inner-core convection has deteriorated
 somewhat until just recently due to the entrainment of dry air,
 microwave images indicate that a well-defined inner-core and
 low-level eye feature has formed. Satellite intensity estimates at
 0000 UTC ranged form T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB to 55 kt and 59 kt
 from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively, which supported an
 intensity of 60 kt at that time. Since then, however, a nearly
 closed ring of cold-topped convection has developed near the center,
 so the intensity is set at 65 kt at the advisory time.
 
 Lanes has made a sharp jog toward the west-northwest during the past
 6 hours, but this believed to be a short-term wobble due to the
 convection having recently wrapped around the north side of the
 low-level center. A return to a general westward motion of 280/13 kt
 is expected to resume shortly. The latest model guidance remains in
 good agreement on Lane continuing move between westward and
 west-northwestward direction for the next 3-4 days, followed by a
 turn back toward the west on day 5 as the stout subtropical ridge to
 the north strengthens to the east and northeast of the Hawaiian
 Islands and as a broad upper-level trough north of Hawaii gradually
 lifts out toward the northeast. The new NHC forecast track has been
 shifted a little to the right or north of the previous advisory
 track, primarily due to the more northward initial position, and
 closely follows the HCCA and TVCN/TVCE track consensus models.
 
 Now that a small well-defined inner core and partial eye feature
 have developed with a radius of maximum winds of 15-20 nmi, Lane is
 poised to rapidly intensity shortly, and sustain that trend for the
 next 36 hour so owing to the very low vertical-wind-shear and
 warm-SST regime that the cyclone will be moving through. Although
 brief intrusions of dry air may result in some flirtations in the
 intensity, the general trend should be for Lane to strengthen at a
 rate of at least 30 kt per 24 hours for the next 36-48 hours. After
 that, the intensity will be modulated by inner-core/eyewall
 fluctuations that can not be forecast accurately that far in
 advance. By days 4 and 5, however, a slow weakening trend is
 expected due to a gradual increase in southwesterly vertical wind
 shear. Overall, though, the new NHC intensity forecast is a little
 above the previous intensity forecast, and is above all of the
 intensity guidance. A good analog that was used for Lane's forecast
 was recent Hurricane Hector, which exhibited similar inner-core and
 outflow characteristics, and moved through similar environmental and
 oceanic conditions.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/0300Z 11.2N 129.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  17/1200Z 11.5N 131.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  18/0000Z 12.0N 134.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  18/1200Z 12.5N 137.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
  48H  19/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
  72H  20/0000Z 14.4N 145.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
  96H  21/0000Z 15.2N 149.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 120H  22/0000Z 15.6N 153.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart