953 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 010259
 TCDEP2
 HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 800 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006
  
 TWO AFTERNOON MICROWAVE PASSES...ONE FROM 1757Z AND THE OTHER FROM
 2057Z...REVEALS A PARTIAL EYEWALL FEATURE. HOWEVER...AS WAS THE
 CASE EARLIER IN THE DAY...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO
 EVIDENCE OF AN APPARENT EYE.  DESPITE THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF
 T4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB...KRISTYS OVERALL APPEARANCE REMAINS RATHER
 AMORPHOUS.  DESPITE ITS RAGGED PRESENTATION...KRISTY IS RETAINED
 AS A 65 KT HURRICANE IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  
 
 RECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND THE EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT 
 KRISTY MAY HAVE BEEN TOO FAR SOUTH...AND THUS THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED
 SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A LONGER-TERM EXAMINATION
 OF THE RECENT FIXES SUGGESTS A MOTION OF 315/7.  MODEL GUIDANCE
 KEEPS KRISTY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS
 UNDERNEATH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
 ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL
 EASTERN PACIFIC...LEADING SOME MODELS TO EVEN SUGGEST A MORE
 SOUTHWESTERLY COURSE.  OTHERS...LIKE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN...FAVOR A
 FUJIWARA INTERACTION...WHEREBY KRISTY IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED BY
 HURRICANE JOHN.  HOWEVER...THIS SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE THE
 MOTION FROM THESE MODELS IS INCORRECT AT THE INITIAL TIME.  THUS
 THE FORECAST TRACK IS A SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN
 SOUTHWEST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...GIVEN THESE TWO DISTINCT
 POSSIBILITIES.
 
 AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KRISTY HAS LIKELY PEAKED. 
 INCREASING EASTERLY WIND SHEAR RELATED TO THE OUTFLOW FROM
 HURRICANE JOHN...NOT TO MENTION COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
 MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GENERAL
 WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE RAPID
 THEREAFTER. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/0300Z 19.3N 117.8W    65 KT
  12HR VT     01/1200Z 19.8N 118.6W    60 KT
  24HR VT     02/0000Z 20.4N 119.5W    50 KT
  36HR VT     02/1200Z 20.6N 120.2W    40 KT
  48HR VT     03/0000Z 20.6N 120.5W    35 KT
  72HR VT     04/0000Z 20.5N 121.0W    30 KT
  96HR VT     05/0000Z 20.0N 121.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     06/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN/LANDSEA