593 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 251446
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008
 800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2008
  
 THE CENTER OF JULIO REMAINS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS
 MORNING.  AN 0934 UTC AMSRE-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT
 THE CENTER WAS OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
 IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER LIKELY REMAINS OVER LAND.  THE
 CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
 THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE GULF OF
 CALIFORNIA.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL
 STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT WE WILL MAINTAIN JULIO AS A TROPICAL 
 STORM GIVEN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE. 
 
 THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/12.  JULIO IS
 FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A MID- TO
 UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THE LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO
 PREDICT A DECREASE IN JULIO'S FORWARD MOTION AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS
 NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS
 INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF JULIO MAY CONTINUE
 NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
 LEFT BEHIND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN A COUPLE OF
 DAYS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK SLOWS JULIO DOWN AND KEEPS THE CENTER
 OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THE NHC TRACK IS IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
 FORECAST.
 
 SINCE THE CENTER OF JULIO MAY MOVE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
 OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS
 JULIO AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR 12 HOURS.  DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE
 CENTER MAY BE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE
 GLOBAL MODES PREDICT INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN
 JULIO.  GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT JULIO COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL
 STORM IN THE SHORT-TERM OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE
 GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
 NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND HAS ISSUED
 A NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.
 
 MOISTURE FROM JULIO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
 STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
 RAINFALL OVER THAT REGION.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/1500Z 26.8N 112.2W    35 KT
  12HR VT     26/0000Z 28.1N 112.7W    35 KT
  24HR VT     26/1200Z 29.1N 113.1W    30 KT
  36HR VT     27/0000Z 29.7N 113.3W    25 KT
  48HR VT     27/1200Z 30.1N 113.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     28/1200Z 30.3N 113.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN