848 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 240836
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number   9
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019
 
 Dalila has maintained a robust low-level circulation based on recent
 scatterometer wind data, but those data also indicate that Dalila's
 peak winds had decreased to 27-30 kt despite a sharp increase in
 deep convection near and southeast of the center.  UW-CIMSS ADT and
 SATCON estimates suggest a higher intensity of 35-44 kt. However, it
 appears that the cooler water that the cyclone is moving over has
 stabilized the boundary layer, which is not allowing the normal
 downward mixing of stronger winds aloft to reach the surface. Given
 the lower ASCAT wind data, Dalila has been downgraded to a 30-kt
 tropical depression.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 315/05 kt. There is no significant
 change to the previous track and intensity forecast philosophies.
 Dalila is expected to move northwestward today, followed by a turn
 toward the west-northwest on Thursday when the weakening cyclone
 becomes more shallow and comes under the influence of easterly
 trade wind flow. The cyclone is now moving over 25 deg C sea-surface
 temperatures, with cooler water and more stable air still ahead of
 Dalila. As a result, convection is expected to gradually wane during
 the next 24 hours, accompanied by a steady spin down of the vortex,
 which should result in the system degenerating into a post-tropical
 remnant low by Thursday morning, if not sooner. The NHC track and
 intensity forecasts closely follow the consensus models HCCA and
 IVCN, respectively.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/0900Z 19.8N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  24/1800Z 20.4N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  25/0600Z 21.1N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  25/1800Z 21.8N 121.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  26/0600Z 22.2N 122.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart