244 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 112038
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
 200 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014
 
 An intermittent eye feature has been noted in both conventional and
 microwave satellite imagery today, and Dvorak intensity estimates
 have steadily increased as a result. However, a 1653 UTC AMSU pass
 indicated that the 15-20 nmi diameter eyewall was open to the east
 and that it was completely detached from any convective bands,
 suggesting that the hurricane is probably not quite as strong as the
 T4.5 satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are indicating.
 Therefore, the initial intensity estimate is set to 70 kt.
 
 Cristina is now moving at a fairly steady motion of 280/05 kt. The
 model guidance remains consistent on the hurricane moving westward
 through tonight, followed by a west-northwestward motion beginning
 on Thursday and continuing through 72 hours. After that, a
 weakening Cristina is forecast to turn more westward as the cyclone
 gradually becomes more vertically shallow as it encounters
 unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and gets steered
 by the low-level easterly flow on the south side of broad ridge of
 high pressure. Although the new model tracks still diverge
 significantly at Days 4 and 5, the GFS and GFS-Ensemble models have
 nudged their tracks a little farther west and closer to the
 previous NHC forecast. As a result, the official forecast track is
 similar to the previous one, and remains a little to the left of the
 consensus model TCVE due to the right-bias of the GFDL-member.
 
 Intermittent intrusions of dry mid-level air should continue to
 interrupt the development of persistent eyewall convection for the
 next 36 hours or so. However, given that Cristina will still be over
 near 29C SSTs and in an extremely low shear environment, those
 conditions should allow for at least gradual strengthening during
 that time. Around 72 hours or so, environmental and oceanic
 conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable, which
 should combine to produce steady weakening, especially by 96 hours
 and beyond.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/2100Z 15.6N 105.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  12/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  12/1800Z 16.6N 107.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  13/0600Z 17.3N 109.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  13/1800Z 18.1N 110.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  14/1800Z 19.1N 112.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  15/1800Z 19.5N 113.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  16/1800Z 19.9N 115.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart