073 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 091432
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011
 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2011
  
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND NOW CONSISTS
 OF A SHAPELESS AREA OF WEAKENING CONVECTION. GIVEN THE CURRENT
 SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO
 50 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS...THE T-NUMBERS 
 SUGGEST A STRONGER CYCLONE. CALVIN IS ALREADY OVER COOL WATERS...SO
 THE CYCLONE WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
  
 CALVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10
 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN A DAY OR
 SO...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND BE STEERED
 BY THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE
 GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...CALVIN OR ITS REMNANTS WILL PROBABLY
 DRIFT WESTWARD OR MEANDER UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  09/1500Z 17.1N 111.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  10/0000Z 17.5N 112.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  10/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  11/0000Z 18.5N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  11/1200Z 19.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA