910 
 WTNT45 KNHC 031458
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2005
  
 THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED FOR 18Z.  IN THE
 MEANTIME...THE HAS BEEN A MARKED INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
 AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  A STATION ON CAYOS ARCAS VERY NEAR
 THE PRESUMED CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 997 MB.  BECAUSE
 THE OVERNIGHT AIRCRAFT FOUND VERY LITTLE WIND NEAR THE CENTER OF
 CIRCULATION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING INCREASED TO 40
 KT AT THIS TIME.  IT IS ALSO UNCLEAR JUST HOW CLOSE THE CENTER IS
 TO THE DEEP CONVECTION.  IN ANY EVENT...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
 FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH LIGHT SHEAR...
 GOOD OUTFLOW...AND WARM WATER.  I ASSUME THE WIND FIELD IS IN THE
 PROCESS OF CONTRACTING IN RESPONSE TO THE CHANGES IN THE CONVECTIVE
 PATTERN...AND ONCE THIS OCCURS A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION RATE
 COULD OCCUR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A BIT MORE
 DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
 GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL MODEL IS NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC...AND THIS COULD
 BE DUE TO ISSUES...EITHER REAL OR IMAGINED...WITH TOPOGRAPHY HAVING
 A NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON THE CYCLONE'S STRUCTURE NEAR LANDFALL.  
 
 THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
 PREVIOUS TRACK. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ALL MAINTAIN ENOUGH
 RIDGING IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO TAKE STAN...OR AT
 LEAST ITS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...INLAND INTO MEXICO.  MUCH OF THE
 GUIDANCE SLOWS OR STALLS THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HOWEVER. IT IS
 POSSIBLE THAT THIS INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN AS STAN APPROACHES
 THE COAST COULD CAUSE A SLOWER MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
  
 ALTHOUGH LANDFALL IS NOT FORECAST FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS...TROPICAL
 STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
 CENTER.  THIS IS THE REASON FOR ISSUING THE HURRICANE WARNING AT
 THIS TIME. 
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/1500Z 20.4N  92.3W    40 KT
  12HR VT     04/0000Z 20.2N  93.7W    50 KT
  24HR VT     04/1200Z 20.0N  94.7W    65 KT
  36HR VT     05/0000Z 19.8N  95.5W    75 KT
  48HR VT     05/1200Z 19.5N  96.2W    80 KT
  72HR VT     06/1200Z 19.0N  97.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
 $$