240 
 WTNT44 KNHC 302103
 TCDAT4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
 400 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016
 
 The system has still not become better organized on satellite
 imagery, with limited evidence of banding features.  There is an
 apparent mid-level center of circulation located south of the
 low-level center.  The highest flight-level wind reported by a
 NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 34 kt and the highest
 SFMR-observed surface winds were 30 kt, which continues to be used
 for the advisory intensity.  There is some evidence of increasing
 upper-level outflow to the north.  The latest intensity
 guidance is a little more aggressive than before, with a little less
 shear forecast over the northern Gulf coast region.  The official
 intensity forecast has been increased slightly in comparison to the
 previous one, and is a little below the latest model consensus.
 Given that a couple of the models show the system becoming a
 hurricane, and the 48-hour forecast point implies
 tropical-storm-force winds near the coast, it is prudent to issue a
 hurricane watch for a portion of the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast
 at this time.
 
 Fixes from the NOAA aircraft show that the initial motion is
 northwestward, or 320/4 kt.  The global models continue to show a
 mid-tropospheric trough developing over the southeastern United
 States during the next couple of days.  This should cause the
 tropical cyclone to turn toward the north and north-northeast in
 24-48 hours.  The dynamical track guidance models have shifted a
 bit to the west compared to their earlier runs, as has the
 multi-model consensus.  Therefore the official track forecast is
 also west of the previous one.
 
 It is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this
 system.  Among other reasons, dangerous storm surge flooding is
 likely along the coast well to the east and south of the path of the
 center.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/2100Z 24.4N  87.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  31/0600Z 24.9N  87.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  31/1800Z 26.0N  87.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  01/0600Z 27.5N  86.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  01/1800Z 29.0N  84.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  02/1800Z 32.9N  79.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  03/1800Z 36.5N  71.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  04/1800Z 39.0N  68.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch