945 
 WTNT43 KNHC 200306
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005
  
 RITA REMAINS JUST UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE STORM PRODUCED A
 MASSIVE BURST OF COLD CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE
 EVENING...AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN INCREASE IN BANDING. 
 HOWEVER...THIS INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION HAS NOT YET PRODUCED
 SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
 HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 59 KT 39 N MI
 NORTHWEST OF OF THE CENTER...AND A CENTER DROPSONDE OF 992 MB WITH
 33 KT SURFACE WINDS.  BASED ON THE THIS...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
 990 MB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/12...UNCERTAIN
 BECAUSE THE SHORT-TERM MOTION SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE TO THE
 LEFT.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
 PHILOSOPHY FOR THE FIRST 72 HR.  A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ALONG
 THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER RITA ON A GENERAL
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK...AND ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
 THIS SCENARIO.  AFTER 72 HR...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE
 HANDLING OF THE GULF COAST RIDGE.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP THE
 RIDGE SOMEWHAT FARTHER WEST...THUS FORECASTING RITA TO MOVE INTO
 THE LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS IN 4-5 DAYS TIME.  THE GFDL AND
 GFS CALL FOR THE RIDGE TO MOVE FATHER EASTWARD AND FORECAST RITA TO
 MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.  THE FORECAST
 TRACK AFTER 72 HR WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...
 CALLING FOR A LANDFALL ON THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.  THE TRACK AFTER
 72 HR IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DUE TO
 THE MODEL SPREAD.
  
 UP TO NOW...RITA HAS HAD PROBLEMS DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED INNER
 CORE.  THIS MIGHT BE DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE STRONG
 UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND AN
 UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.  OTHER THAN THAT...
 CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND IT IS LIKELY
 THAT RITA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW HOURS.  THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...
 ALTHOUGH STRONGER THAN BOTH.  THE GFDL CONTINUES TO FORECAST VERY
 RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE VERY WARM
 WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  SO FAR THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED...BUT
 THE GFDL COULD BE RIGHT IF RITA ESTABLISHES A BETTER INNER CORE. 
 THERE IS THUS A POSSIBILITY THAT RITA COULD BECOME A MAJOR
 HURRICANE BEFORE PASSING THE FLORIDA KEYS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
 THE GFDL CALLS FOR RITA TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS
 THE STORM FOR THE REST OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THIS IS LIKELY DUE
 TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OF THE
 GULF OF MEXICO BEING LESS THAN THOSE IN THE FLORIDA
 STRAITS...EXCEPT IN THE LOOP CURRENT.
  
 THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE REVISED BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA.
  
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/0300Z 23.3N  77.8W    60 KT
  12HR VT     20/1200Z 23.7N  79.5W    75 KT
  24HR VT     21/0000Z 24.2N  82.1W    85 KT
  36HR VT     21/1200Z 24.5N  84.9W    95 KT
  48HR VT     22/0000Z 24.8N  87.4W   100 KT
  72HR VT     23/0000Z 25.5N  91.5W   105 KT
  96HR VT     24/0000Z 27.5N  94.0W   105 KT
 120HR VT     25/0000Z 30.5N  96.0W    60 KT...INLAND
  
  
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