236 
 WTNT44 KNHC 300849
 TCDAT4
 
 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 500 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016
 
 There are no data currently available from the inner core of
 Matthew, so it is unclear whether the earlier rapid intensification
 is continuing.  A well-defined elliptical eye is seen in data from
 the Curacao radar.  However, the latest satellite imagery shows
 that the central convection is somewhat asymmetric and that an eye
 is yet to form.  Satellite intensity estimates are 90 kt from TAFB
 and 77 kt from SAB.  Based on continuity from the previous advisory
 and no improvement in the satellite signature, the initial intensity
 is held at a possibly conservative 85 kt.  It is notable that the
 rapid intensification has occurred despite an ongoing 20 kt of
 southwesterly vertical wind shear.
 
 The initial motion is 265/12.  There is little change to the track
 forecast philosophy from the previous advisory.  A low- to
 mid-level ridge to the north of Matthew should keep it moving
 westward or south of westward for the next 36 hours with some
 decrease in forward speed.  From 48-120 hours, the ridge is
 forecast to weaken and shift eastward as a mid- to upper-level
 trough moves into the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.  This
 evolution should cause Matthew to turn northwestward and then
 northward.  There is a significant spread in where the turn will
 occur and how fast Matthew will move afterwards.  The ECMWF and
 UKMET are on the eastern side of the guidance envelope and slower
 than the other models, while the GFS and Canadian models are to the
 left of the center of the guidance envelope and much faster.  The
 various consensus models split these differences in both track and
 speed, and the new forecast track lies close to them.  Overall, the
 new track is a little south of the previous track through 48 hours
 and a little west of the previous track from 72-120 hours.
 
 The intensity forecast is very problematic.  The ongoing shear has
 so far done little to keep Matthew from intensifying.  Despite
 this, the intensity guidance is in unanimous agreement that the
 cyclone should weaken from 12-48 hours, most likely due to shear.
 From 48-96 hours, the shear is expected to diminish, and during that
 time Matthew is expected to intensify until it interacts with land.
 The intensity forecast will smooth through what could be some ups
 and downs in intensity.  First, it assumes that the current
 strengthening will continue for another 12-24 hours, with Matthew
 reaching major hurricane strength.  Then, it keeps the intensity at
 100 kt from 24-48 hours, followed by some intensification as the
 shear lets up.  Weakening due to land interaction is forecast after
 72 hours.  The intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the
 intensity guidance, but it is less intense than the HWRF model from
 72-120 hours.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/0900Z 14.0N  69.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  30/1800Z 13.8N  71.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  01/0600Z 13.7N  72.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  01/1800Z 13.9N  73.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  02/0600Z 14.5N  74.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  03/0600Z 17.0N  76.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  04/0600Z 20.5N  76.0W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
 120H  05/0600Z 24.5N  76.0W   85 KT 100 MPH...OVER WATER
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven